Viel ist in der Vergangenheit über die Stärken und Schwächen einer bankbasierten Wirtschaftsfinanzierung im Vergleich zu einer kapitalmarktbasierten Wirtschaftsfinanzierung diskutiert worden. In einem aktuellen Working Paper geht die EZB dieser Frage nach. Sie nähert sich der Frage mit zwei Hypothesen:
“First, we hypothesise that systemic risk tends to be higher in bank-based financial structures. When asset prices rise, banks’ expansion occurs at the expense of credit Quality. Banks’ additional risk-taking is uncovered once asset prices drop. Second, we hypothesise that economic growth tends to be lower in bank-based financial structures, particularlyduring times of large drops in asset prices. Banks’ excessive credit creation in the upswing of the financial cycle results in more funding being directed to bad projects with low productivity, while insufficient credit creation in downswings means that good opportunities are forgone.“
Beide Hypothesen werden in der Untersuchung bestätigt:
“First, bank-based financial structures are associated with more systemic risk-taking by banks, controlling for bank and year fixed effects and time-varying bank characteristics such as size and leverage. The increase in systemic risk is particularly strong when real house prices drop by more than 10%, reflecting the importance of housing as collateral. Second, we find that bank-based financial structures are associated with lower economic growth, particularly when real house prices drop substantially.“
Entsprechend empfiehlt die EZB aus Wachstums- und Risikoerwägungen die europäische Kapitalmarktunion voranzutreiben:
“Useful steps towards this capital markets union would include the integration of stock trading platforms in Europe; a reduction of the fixed costs faced by small and medium firms in accessing capital markets; greater standardisation of corporate bond issues and private placement transactions; and measures to improve the depth and quality of asset-backed securities markets.”
Was letzteres angeht, hat die TSI über die letzten zehn Jahre hinweg vielfältige Vorschläge in öffentlichen Stellungsnahmen, Hintergrundgesprächen sowie im Rahmen ihres jährlichen Kongresses, der traditionell die Asset Based Finance Märkte behandelt, erarbeitet und vorgestellt.